Tuesday, March 10, 2009

The End Is Near...

It appears that Visteon will be visiting the courtroom today to file chapter 11. I am sure they won't be the last. March and April will be the worst months that suppliers have ever seen. I know it is bad when my friends and customers tell me that they only work 4 days a week or they don't even show up for a full week once a month. Everyone I know is on the edge of their seat waiting for the other shoe to drop. Last week my cousin lost his job at Calsonic. Sure, they have been on life support for ages, but what good will it do to delay development for 2012 vehicles today? Preserve cash? Yes, OK. What position will suppliers be in? Who knows!

Michigan is about to feel the wrath of this recession...err....borderline depression. Our tax base is heavily dependent on autos. Our roads, schools, and infrastructure depend on automotive jobs for everything. People are leaving Michigan by the thousands in search of greener pastures. The writing is on the wall for Michigan. It's sad but true. This isn't the same as the recessions of 30 or 40 years ago. The automotive pie has been sliced and diced. The Detroit 3 have less than 50% market share...this wasn't the case 28 years ago. We have over 300 nameplates today competing for 9 million sales a year. No one can be profitable at this rate. Do the math.

If you can escape the mitten state without taking a bath on your house (small minority of people) then leave! Save yourself!